This piece is going to look briefly back at the team that was in terms of age. Following a brief analysis of this, I will look at the prospects in the system and highlight several that could impact the 2015-16 Penguins.
The Retirement HOme on Fifth and Washington
According to an article by Tim Hiebert on Sporting Charts, the average age of the Stanley Cup winning teams over the past 48 years is 27.2 years old. The 2008-09 Penguin team that raised the Cup was one of the older teams to raise it in this timespan – with the average age of 28.35 years old. It is surprising to think that the 2009 Cup team was as old as the numbers show, especially considering their core of Crosby (21), Malkin (22), Fleury (24), Letang (21) and Staal (20) were all under the age of 25. The oldest team to win the Cup in that time frame, the Detroit Red Wings, beat the Penguins in 2007-08 Stanley Cup Finals with an average roster age of 31.7 years old. Of the last three Cup teams (the Kings twice and the Hawks), the three teams come in under that 27.2 mark.
With that 27.2 average age of Stanley Cup Championship teams, you won’t be surprised to find that our Penguins of 2014-15 had an average age of 28.31 years old. Is age a factor in why the Penguins did not really stand a chance in winning the Cup? Not entirely, as history shows that the ’09 Cup team had an older average age than this one.
But age did play a factor for sure in what honestly was a failed season. Though Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Hornqvist are in their primes, this team not only is old on paper, but they looked old on the ice. The thirty-five year old wingers couldn’t keep up with Crosby or Malkin, and neither could the majority of wingers in the 25-30 range. The defensive corps was even worse, having an average age of 28.0 years old and the youngest, Maatta at 20, only played in a handful of games.
To make matters worse, this team has not had a core of young forwards since the 2009 Stanley Cup team. Look back at that team’s forward group, the majority were under 30 years old besides Billy Guerin and Petr Sykora and the core guys - Crosby was 21, Malkin 22, Tyler Kennedy 22, Jordan Staal 20 and Max Talbot 25 – were all 25 and under.
The 2014-15 Penguins only had one forward under the age of 25, Beau Bennett (23), and he only played half a season and was ineffective when he did play. That is a major problem and it showed.
How Did We Get Here?
First, former GM Ray Shero invested his draft picks in defensemen. I cannot completely blame Shero for that. The 09 Cup team had just two starting defensemen under 30 years old – Brooks Orpik, 28, and Kris Letang, 22. Shero needed to replenish this system for the future and he did just that.
Here are the young defensemen that Ray Shero brought in via draft or trade since the Cup win in 2009: Simon Despres (1st, 2009), Philip Samuelsson (2nd, 2009), Reid McNeill (7th, 2010), Joe Morrow (1st, 2011), Scott Harrington (2nd, 2011), Derrick Pouliot (1st, 2012), Olli Maatta (1st, 2012), Brian Dumoulin (trade 2012, drafted in 2011). Of that group, five are still in the organization and four of those five will likely play a major role going forward. I cannot fault Shero for rebuilding the defensive corps, but he has really put the Pens in a pinch with forwards.
Secondly, there is the anti-youth nature of the team from 2010-2014. Let’s face it; Shero and Bylsma did not like using their draft picks on the roster. We saw Bylsma stagnate the development of Simon Despres, Beau Bennett and others in favor of veterans like Joe Vitale, Craig Adams, etc. Same for Ray Shero, as he traded away several prospects and picks to bring in aging, contract-expiring veterans. Though I give Shero the pass for his good drafting of defensemen, I cannot forgive the sins of trading youth for aging players and allowing the coach to use lackluster veterans instead of giving youngsters a try.
Finally, the trading away of draft picks in favor of veterans fixes. And let’s face it here, Jim Rutherford is just as guilty of this as Ray Shero. Shero traded away multiple picks to bring in rental players such as Jarome Iginla, Douglas Murray, Brenden Morrow, Jordan Leopold and Alexei Ponikarovsky. That took away multiple first, second and third round choices from the organization. Those picks have the best chance of producing NHL caliber players, and the Penguins haven’t drafted a forward like that since Jordan Staal in 2006. Jim Rutherford claimed that he would not do that when he took the job last summer, smartly taking forwards with his first four picks in the 2014 draft, including Kasperi Kapanen. However, no young forwards were added to the roster and this year’s first and third rounders and 2017’s second rounder are gone for the likes of David Perron, Marcel Goc and Daniel Winnik.
Look, I am all for going for it during the season. If you are that one player away from raising the Cup then I say you do it. However, I don’t think the Daniel Winnik trade was necessary, and that took away two draft picks. I think David Perron is a very good player, but in a deep forward draft that 2015 will be, I would rather take a shot on a kid and save several million dollars.
At this point, you are probably wondering what we actually have left in the system, so let’s shift gears and discuss what we have in the organization for forwards and defensemen. From there, I will give you my thoughts on the ones who will have an impact on the 2015-16 Penguins.
A Refresher on the Forwards in the System
Left Wings: Scott Wilson, Conor Sheary, Tom Kuhnhackl, Jayson Megna, Dominik Uher, Troy Josephs, Bobby Farnham
Centers: Oskar Sundqvist, Nick Drazenocic, Teddy Blueger, Jean-Sebaastien Dea, Jake Guentzel, Sam Lafferty, Anthony Angello
The forwards in the organization have potential, but they are going to take some time. I think the only four or five ready for the NHL are Kapanen, Sundqvist, Wilson, Megna and Rust. I will talk about them more in a little bit, but for now I want to focus on a couple guys in the organization that could play a role down the road.
Josh Archibald: One thing the Penguins desperately need on their wings is speed. Josh Archibald has speed. The first thing you will see in any scouting report is his speed. According to Hockey Futures, his scoring touch has not transferred over from his time at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, but he has made the adjustment to the pro game in every other area. He played this season in Wilkes-Barre, primarily on the bottom six.
Teddy Blueger: the Latvian native has impressed at all his stops in his hockey career, including playing at Shattuck-St. Mary’s like Penguins captain Sidney Crosby. Blueger was the top-line center at Mankato State University this season, one of the nation’s top teams. Hockey Futures believes his offensive talents will transfer nicely to the pro game, and that he has the skill to be a top-nine offensive threat in the NHL. He is a center and likely a few years away, but he is a promising piece.
Conor Sheary: His name is not mentioned often, but mostly because he spent the last four years before this season playing for UMASS-Amherst. In his first pro season at Wilkes-Barre, Sheary posted 20 goals and 45 points in 58 games. The 23 year old may need some more polish in the AHL, but I can see him playing in the NHL by 2016-17.
Anton Zlobin: I have said it for years that the Pens need to get a Russian winger for Malkin. Zlobin is the best bet in house. Zlobin played in Russia, Juniors in North American and has been in Wilkes-Barre since the 2013-14 season. He had a very good year at WBS last season, but has missed the majority of the season with injury this year. He has the scoring touch and nose for the net to succeed at the NHL level. He just needs to develop the rest of his game before he makes the jump. Had he not been injured, I think he could have gotten some time this season. Likely, he may make his debut next year, but won’t impact the big club until 2016-17.
Dominik Uher: He projects well according to Hockey Futures, who say the Czech winger has a good all-around game that would allow him to succeed in the bottom six at the NHL level. He made his NHL debut this past season, playing in two games but spent the majority of the year in Wilkes-Barre where he posted 13 goals and 26 points in a checking role. I can see him playing a larger role in the big club sooner rather than later, even as early as next season.
A Refresher of the Defenseman in the System
Several of these guys are no brainers and I will discuss them further later on, but I want to make mention of a couple others.
Reid McNeill: Taken in the final round of the 2010 draft, this young man has become the Pens best stay-at-home defensive prospect. Hockey Futures points out that McNeill is often matched up against the AHL best players while playing for the Baby Penguins. I don’t think he will make an impact in 2015-16, but I am sure he could play an emergency role next year if need be.
Harrison Ruopp: Ruopp was acquired in the traded that sent Zybnek Michalek back to Arizona at the 2012 draft. Ruopp has bounced up and down between Wheeling and Wilkes-Barre the last two seasons, but with some of the WBS defensemen making the jump in 2015, Ruopp should get a lot of time in Wilkes-Barre. He is a physical defenseman, who from what I read is the closest things the Pens have had to another Brooks Orpik in the system in years. I doubt he will ever be what Orpik was for this team, but he could become a serviceable defenseman down the road.
My Key Young Forwards for 2015-16
Kasperi Kapanen: The 2014 first round pick has played professionally for three years just as Sundqvist has. He joined the Baby Pens after his year in Finland ended and has not missed a beat. He missed a week with injury, but had points in his first game and has three goals in the first two Calder Cup Playoff games. Kapanen projects to be a top-six winger at the NHL level and if the Baby Pens have a deep run in the AHL playoffs, I don’t see any reason why Kapanen won’t be on the 23-man roster come October 2015. I think he would play with Malkin, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him with Sid either.
Bryan Rust: I think this kid is much better than he gets credit for. A third round pick in 2010, Rust excelled at Notre Dame before making the jump to professional hockey for good this season. He scored 13 goals and 27 points in 45 games in Wilkes-Barre, while chipping in a goal and an assist in 14 games for the big club. He is smart, skates well and can score in the dirty areas. I think he needs a little time to develop more in the AHL, but I would be comfortable with him playing on the third line next season alongside Sutter or Sundqvist.
Scott Wilson: This kid reminds me a lot of Chris Kunitz, well the younger Chris Kunitz. He has the same physical stature and plays a similar game. He has good offensive talent and is not afraid to throw his body around. He had a great year in Wilkes-Barre, even while missing close to twenty games thanks to injury and he played pretty well in his Stanley Cup Playoff debut. I think he would be a good fit for the third line next season, especially if he continues to progress in the AHL playoffs.
My Key Young Defensemen for 2015-16
Scott Harrington: Though he got leap-frogged by Brian Dumoulin in the later half of the season, I think Harrington will be one of the starting six in 2015-16. His offensive talents from the blueline have gotten better with his time in Wilkes-Barre and though he has a minus-10 rating at the NHL level, he was in good position on those goals according to management. Again, I project him to be in the starting six and think he would be a good partner for Olli Maatta. Oh, and the two paired together for several years in juniors playing for London.
Brian Dumoulin: Dumoulin often gets lost in the shuffle when talking about the Pens defensive prospects, but he had another outstanding year at Wilkes-Barre in 2014-15. He was second amongst defensemen in points and assists last season for WBS. In the NHL, his regular season play was alright, but he really stepped it up against the Rangers in the first round. I have not qualms about giving him 18 minutes a night on the blueline alongside someone like Ian Cole or Ben Lovejoy.
Conclusions
There is no other way to put it and no other way to move forward. The Pens don't have great depth at forward, but I think they need to at least see what they have going forward. Kapanen and Sundqvist will most likely stick, but I'd also like to see what guys like Rust, Wilson and Sheary can do on a regular basis.
Defensively, I have no worries about the future. If Letang and Maatta are healthy, the Pens will have a top-six that with the exception of maybe one player will be under the age of 28.
Youth must be served. Youth must prevail. But youth must show what they are made of. The time is now.