With that in mind, there are several key things the Penguins need to have happen in the second half of the season for them to not only make the playoffs, but have a chance at winning the franchise's fourth Stanley Cup. Here are my 5 keys to the second half for the Penguins...
5. Turn Around the Poor Starts
For Kunitz and Kessel, it is about scoring goals. Kessel is a bonafide sniper, and while 14 goals is nothing to look down on, he could certainly have more by this point. If he could post 20 goals over the next 30 games, then the Penguins would be in great shape. Add Kunitz to that as well. He only had 8 in the first half, though he was heating up before the break. If he could add 10-15 goals over the remainder of the year, he could turn the top six into and even more fierce entity.
While I like what Hagelin has brought to his first handful of games in a Pittsburgh sweater, I'd like to see him score a few goals for the Pens. The assists are huge, especially since that means Kessel and Geno are potting goals, but I'd like to see him add a few himself. Same for Eric Fehr. Fehr has played much better since being moved to the third line center role, but his 7 points through 38 games is sub-par for a player of his caliber. I'd like to see him finish the year in the 25-30 point range and I don't think that is out of the question for a player like him.
Defensively, Ian Cole and Ben Lovejoy need to do better. If they aren't moved in a deal (as I will discuss more later) and they are still in the lineup, then they need to play to a much higher level. Lovejoy really only faltered of late, but Ian Cole has been atrocious all year. I want to see the guy we acquired at the deadline last season, not this guy.
With all that in mind, the guy with the most to prove is center Nick Bonino. While he will be out until mid-February with a broken hand, there is no discounting his first half was just awful. Ten points in 40 games is bad for a player of his talents. He's been a 40-50 point scorer the last two seasons, he can certainly do it with this team too. He needs consistent wingers, but he also needs to take a little more initiative in the offensive zone. He does that, he should see more points coming.
4. Stars Surging
The struggles of Sidney Crosby through the first 30 games or so have been well documented by everyone from here to Saskatoon. Over his last 18 games though, he has looked like the Crosby of old. In the 19 games under new coach Mike Sullivan, Sid has scored 22 points. That is more like the Sid we've become accustomed to. I think he will take the rest from the All-Star break and come out guns ablaze. Don't be surprised if Sid give Kane a run for the Art Ross in the end, even with Kane up about 30 points.
Same could be said for Evgeni Malkin. Since the atrocious loss to New Jersey in mid-November, Geno has come alive. He is averaging about a point per game (47 points in 48 games) and really took off after that loss to the Devils. With Phil Kessel and Carl Hagelin finding a lot of chemistry of late, and the way the power play has rolled over the last six weeks, I think Malkin will really start to heat up. Malkin should finish the season in the top 10 in scoring if he keeps up this play.
Then there is Kris Letang. Like Crosby, Letang has really been ablaze since the coaching change in mid-December. The Norris-candidate has 19 points under Mike Sullivan, and that is while missing several games due to multiple injuries. If Letang can stay healthy and not get hampered by nagging injuries, I think he could find himself in the Norris talk once again.
Finally, there is Marc-Andre Fleury. The Flower was outstanding in the season's first half. I don't expect that to stop in the second half. He is one of the major reasons the Pens are even still in playoff contention, and with the rest of the team playing better around him, he should start looking even better down the stretch.
3. Play Well Within
If the Penguins hope to earn a playoff spot, they will need to win as many of those 18 games as possible. The reason being, those games are essentially worth four points. Win a game v. a division foe and you get the two points, but take away two points they could use against you in the standings. That is why these 18 games will be instrumental to the Penguins success the remainder of the season.
2. Make the Deal
The bottom six hasn't been as good as we all hoped. Injuries and underproduction has been the reasons for that. I don't trust Bennett to remain healthy and if they aren't going to use Rust or Plotnikov over Porter, then they definitely need to add a vet via trade. Zatkoff has been awful, and I don't trust him to win important games coming down the stretch. Then there is the defense. It has been average at best all year, but the play of Lovejoy and particularly Cole just isn't good enough for the remainder of the year. I'd like to see the Pens maybe move one of them for someone to improve the bottom pairing or even the top-4.
Before I discuss trades, the best way to fill some of those holes are from within.
The first thing they could do is what I discussed in the first section above, get the production they should from some of the guys they already have. If Bonino, Kessel, Kunitz and Fehr can produce like they have historically done, or at least get close to that level, this team will be all the better. If they can do that, the "holes" that are there now won't seem so glaring.
Then, you have the guys in the system. While the Penguins don't have a whole lot of options in the system, the have a few guys. One would be young goalie Matt Murray. I think he is ready for the NHL, and I would trust him 1000-fold over what we've gotten from Jeff Zatkoff. I don't see his development getting stunted and the experience at this level would be better for him anyway. Then, there is Derrick Pouliot. I think he has been average in his two games this season, but he is definitely keeping more attention to his defensive play, which is good. If he can play to a higher level, he would solve part of the defenseman problems for this team. Finally, I think Bryan Rust and Sergei Plotnikov are the answer in the bottom six. I don't trust Beau Bennett because he can't stay healthy and Kevin Porter brings nothing but some PK skill. I'd much prefer to see Rust or Plotnikov play with Matt Cullen or Bonino on the bottom line while the other plays with Eric Fehr. Rust and Fehr have looked great thus far, so roll with it.
Finally, I'd like to see the Penguins make some sort of move. I don't want Jim Rutherford to go make a huge blockbuster deal, they don't need that. In my eyes, they need someone who could come in and be a stud bottom pair defenseman who is suited to play in the top four. I think there are several of those guys out there and I think they'd really help the Penguins out down the stretch. Then, if they could add a veteran guy to bolster the forwards corps, I'd definitely consider it. Doesn't have to be a household name, but someone who could provide depth scoring.
For a list of guys I'd love to see move Jim Rutherford look at, read my last piece here: http://bigdavespenspregame.weebly.com/blog/market-value-6-trade-targets-for-the-pens
1. No More Boo-boos and Owwies
- Knocking on wood
- Salt over the shoulder
- Lucky rabbits feet
- Crossed fingers
- Any other good luck tricks
Ok, now that we've got that out of the way, let's get back to business. The Penguins need to remain healthy for the rest of the year. Sidney Crosby has missed just one game. Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Patric Hornqvist have played in every game. Olli Maatta, Chris Kunitz and Eric Fehr have missed a handful with various things. If they can stay on the ice, that would be huge. The injury to Bonino hurts, but he will be back with plenty of time to prep for the playoffs. Then there is Beau Bennett, who will likely get hurt as soon as he returns again, so I'm not concerned about him.
The keys of course, are the stars. Crosby and Malkin have missed one game combined. Fleury missed about two weeks with a concussion, but hasn't missed a beat otherwise. He will likely play in 25-28 of the remaining 34 games this season.
Then there is Kris Letang. Tanger has missed 10 games this year, but he has also played the last two weeks with a nagging hand injury. I don't see that healing correctly while he is playing, so he won't necessarily be 100%. Though he hasn't missed a step with that hand issue, he needs to stay on the ice. The Pens have a horrible record without him and they won't stand a chance in the playoffs without him. He needs to remain mostly healthy, along with Crosby, Malkin and Fleury.
If the Penguins can do all of this, they will have a good chance of not only making the playoffs, but making a run in the Stanley Cup Finals. Here is to the second half of the season folks! Enjoy it!