What a ride it has been. This season saw the Penguins go from a question mark, to down-and-out, to resurgent, and finally, to Stanley Cup Champions. What a time to be alive.
This season also saw the emergence of fan interaction here on the blog. I introduced the #AskBigDave section as a way to interact with you all and expand the Pregame. I am very happy with how this little Q&A section worked out, and I will surely continue it into the 2016-17 season.
Now, I am finishing off this Stanley Cup winning season with one, final #AskBigDave blog piece. We got a bunch of questions on several different topics from many of the great supporters of this page out there. Today, I answer those very questions....
On the Future of marc-Andre Fleury...
- From @truebluepensfan on Twitter: "What is your opinion on the Fluery trade rumors? Do you think he'll stay in the Burgh?"
- From Alex on the Tweety: "With Murray's performance in the Stanley Cup, what do you do with MAF?"
- From @pensfan2259 on Twitter: "If the pens trade Fleury to Calgary, what besides draft picks would he be worth? Wideman was one to be rumored in a deal."
I had really hoped that the emergence of Matt Murray would not lead us to this point. I hoped that we would see Murray succeed, get us through until Flower was ready again, and then see MAF take us the rest of the way. Mike Sullivan rode Murray all the way to the Stanley Cup, and by doing, effectively ended the tenure of Marc-Andre Fleury in a Pittsburgh Penguins sweater.
It is believed that Fleury's agent, Allan Walsh, has asked GM Jim Rutherford to move the 31-year-old goalie this summer. He has three years left on his current contract and comes in at a cap hit of 5.75 million dollars annually. That's a pretty good deal for a Stanley Cup winning goalie, coming off a career season and entering his prime for his position. Fleury could still help the Penguins succeed, and he can certainly do the same somewhere else.
If the decision were up to me, I'd see what offers come my way over the next two weeks. The NHL Draft is this weekend in Buffalo, and there tends to be a flurry of action in the 48 hours leading up to the first selection. I wouldn't expect anything less this year. Same goes for the hours leading up to free agency on July 1st. We saw the Pens pull off the blockbuster deal last year when they landed Phil Kessel. It is possible we see something similar this time around. However, if the right deal is not there, then I hold on to Marc-Andre Fleury heading into the season.
Fleury has put the Penguins in a tight spot. He wants out, and everyone around the league knows that. They will try to lowball GMJR to acquire the former number one pick and Cup winning goalie. But don't expect Rutherford to pull the trigger on just any deal. The Penguins can honor Fleury's request, but they don't have to do it right away and just give him up. Fleury signed a contract with the Penguins, and he must stand by it.
So, if I am GM Jim Rutherford, I see what deals are offered over the next two weeks. If there is one that blows me away, then I take it. Otherwise, I hold on to Fleury into the season, have him get plenty of starts and then move him at the trade deadline to a Western Conference contender who will overpay for his services at that time. That is the only way the Penguins will get nearly what they deserve for such a quality goalie.
Now, as Rob mentioned above, the Calgary Flames have been in contact with the Penguins on Fleury. I personally believe that is the perfect landing spot for MAF. The Flames are a great goalie away from being a legitimate contender in the Western Conference. They have a great group of forwards, stellar defensive corps and core group of young, talented kids that remind me a lot of the 2007-09 Penguins. Fleury would be a perfect fit for the Flames.
As of Tuesday morning, the rumor flying around the Twittersphere was that the Flames offered two second round pics and mid-level prospects for MAF. Jim Rutherford reportedly countered that he wants the Flames first rounder, sixth overall, in Friday's draft. Ultimately, the Penguins need to be somewhere in the middle of that. I doubt they get the sixth overall pick unless they add to the deal, and the Flames won't get Fleury for their offer unless they add to the deal.
What I would like to see the Penguins do, if they do decide to trade him to Calgary, is get multiple picks and a defenseman in the deal. From where I stand, Ben Lovejoy won't be back, Justin Schultz likely won't be back and I am still convinced that Derrick Pouliot will not be here come training camp. If that is the case, the Penguins are one defenseman short going into the season. I'd take a second rounder, a third-fourth rounder, a prospect and say Ladislav Smid or Deryk Engelland in return for Marc-Andre Fleury. Both Smid and Engelland will be UFA's at year's end and would fit well into the Penguins bottom pair and PK. Engelland would also bring a little grit as well.
If this deal, or one similar to it cannot be reached, then I hold on to Fleury until the trade deadline. By then, you may have a better idea if Matt Murray can withstand a full regular season and playoffs, or there could be injuries that require the services of Fleury for the long-haul.
Either way, this is a crappy situation for both the Penguins and Marc-Andre Fleury. That being said, it is the nature of the business, and it will likely be the end of MAF in the City of Champions.
On the Penguins Chances of Repeating...
Now, it is time to look to next season and the future. These questions deal with the Penguins chances next season:
- From Jonathan M. on the Tweety: "Do you really think the Pens have a legitimate chance of repeating?"
- From Nick B. on Twitter: "What do you think the Pens need to do in the offseason to keep a Stanley Cup caliber team?"
- From Todd W. on Twitter: "How about the cap situation?"
I am going to start this section by discussing the Cap issue and working my way up to Jon's question.
According to General Fanager's website, as of Tuesday, June 21st the Penguins are currently 2.98 million dollars over the current salary cap. The NHL has yet, to my knowledge, release what the salary cap figure will be in the 2016-17 season. Many believe it will go down with the struggles of the Canadian dollar, while the League has remained adamant that the cap will go up for this season. So the Penguins being over the cap at this precise moment may not be the same as when it is released.
With that in mind, the Penguins will shed nearly six million dollars in cap space when they move Marc-Andre Fleury. I expect that deal to come in the next two weeks, which will give the Penguins some cap room to maneuver over the next season. I also think that the current number calculated by General Fanager may include the salary's of Ben Lovejoy and Justin Schultz, both of which are set to come off the books next Friday. If that is the case, the Pens will have some extra move to maneuver.
Now, I really don't think the Penguins have to do a whole lot to seriously compete again next season. The biggest thing will be being healthy, as it always is. The news that Evgeni Malkin may require surgery for his elbow could carry over into the season if he does need it. The other injuries for the Penguins will be healed in time for the season, but a short summer does tend to come back and hurt teams. I think Mike Sullivan will have them ready, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a slow start.
Personnel wise, I don't think the Penguins are going to do a whole lot over the summer to the roster. I think Marc-Andre Fleury will be gone, which will cause GMJR to add a backup goalie. Jeff Zatkoff could be re-signed, but I wouldn't be surprised if he picked someone up off the market and let Zatkoff walk. Ben Lovejoy won't be back, no matter how much GMJR says he'd like to re-sign him, and I doubt Justin Schultz will take the paycut necessary to remain in Pittsburgh either. I also don't see Derrick Pouliot returning either, and Matt Cullen will likely retire.
The question is how to replace them?
I think Oskar Sundqvist steps in for Cullen and centers the fourth line immediately. He is ready for the job, though he won't produce offensively like Cullen. In net, I think either Zatkoff returns or GMJR signs a veteran backup like he did with Thomas Greiss in 2014. Up front, you will have Scott Wilson coming back from injury, and the Pens re-signed Kevin Porter earlier in the week to add to their depth. In the system, they have the likes of Blueger, Guentzel, and Simon coming through Wilkes-Barre. Defense should be interesting. Trevor Daley will return to the lineup, but if the Pens lose both Lovejoy and Schultz, and trade Pouliot, they don't have a bottom pair defenseman. I think they will look to add one through a deal, or via free agency.
If the Pens can stay healthy and add another decent defenseman, they will certainly have a shot at repeating. Their speed is hard to beat, and the way they sacrifice and play in the post season is simply tough to beat. I wouldn't expect the Pens to play the regular season like the playoffs, but they should step it up come the spring.
On Matt Murray's Future...
Matt Murray has had a magical run. He was AHL Goaltender of the Year in 2014-15 and then took the Penguins to the Stanley Cup in 2015-16. He got the chance through circumstance, but you can't deny, he took complete advantage of the opportunity.
Now, the Penguins have seemed to make their decision on what the future holds. Out with the old, in with the new. Matt Murray will be the Penguins new franchise goalie by all indications. He has certainly earned the right with how he played in the AHL, down the stretch of the regular season and taking the Pens to the Stanley Cup with 15 wins and a low GAA.
Look, I am a big Marc-Andre Fleury fan. Like Brooks Orpik, Rob Scuderi and others, he was drafted during the "Dark Age" and a major reason for the resurgence of the franchise over the last decade. But like Orpik and Scuderi, the Flower's day has come and it is time to cut the cord in the interest of both sides. Flower has been nothing but a huge piece for this team over the past 12 seasons, and he has been nothing but a gentleman with the fans in that time as well. He deserves a number one goalie spot and I wish him the best wherever he lands.
I am completely fine with the Penguins turning to Matt Murray in the immediate future and for the long haul. I don't think he will be a Patrick Roy, Martin Brodeur level player in his career, but I certainly think he will have a long, and prosperous NHL career. Hopefully, for many years in the local parish.
On the World Cup of Hockey and SHorter Offseason...
Todd, this may be the biggest question in my mind going forward that doesn't revolve around Marc-Andre Fleury. The Penguins will have a very short summer not only because they won the Cup in mid-June, but because at least six of their guys will play in the World Cup of Hockey slated to open up in early September.
Luckily for the Penguins, they are entering the offseason relatively healthy. Besides a few bumps, bruises and the occasional broken digit, the Pens are free of serious injury. Evgeni Malkin's elbow is very concerning to me, and I personally do not like that he is going to rehab it instead of surgery. I feel like that decision was made by Geno so he can play for Russia in the World Cup of Hockey. I'd prefer to see Geno get that solved the correct way and heal. He would miss part of the regular season, but that wouldn't be the worst thing after a short summer. He'd be more fresh heading into next season's playoffs.
The biggest issue will be the fatigue factor. The Penguins probably could have repeated in 2010 had they not had a short summer and the Olympics in the same season. There have been reports from multiple outlets over the last few weeks saying several members of that 2010 team said they were just too fatigued in the playoffs that year because of the Olympics and short summer. Same will happen this year. Sid, Geno, Hagelin, Horny, Maatta and Murray will all play in the WCoH, and don't be surprised if someone like Kessel, Letang or even one of the younger kids gets added before the start of the tournament. That is a lot of hockey in a short time, with very little time to rest and recover.
Fatigue and a short summer will certainly affect this team Todd. I don't think it will early in the year, but those legs could get real tired come spring.
On the Looming Expansion...
I am glad I waited a few days to answer these questions, because Wednesday night finally answered everything we've been discussing about expansion for months. The NHL announced Wednesday night prior to the NHL Awards that Las Vegas will be entering the league as it's 31st member during the 2017-18 season. They also announced that expansion draft for Vegas will be in the summer of 2017. Here are a few key points to the expansion draft, the rest can be found in the NHL's statement here: www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592
- Each team has two protection options:
- Option 1: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen and a goalie
- Option 2: 8 skaters (any mix of forwards/defensemen) and a goalie.
- Option 1: 7 forwards, 3 defensemen and a goalie
- Players with no-movement clauses, who do not waive them for the expansion draft, MUST be protected in the draft.
- 1st and 2nd year professional players, including the AHL, are exempt from the draft.
- Each team must expose:
- 1 Defenseman) who is under contract for 2017-18, played in at least 40 games in the 2016-17 season or 70 games over the previous two seasons.
- 2 Forwards) who are under contract for 2017-18, played in at least 40 games in the 2016-17 season or 70 games over the previous two seasons.
- 1 Goalie) who is under contract for 2017-18 or is a restricted free agent going into the summer of 2017. Any restricted free agent must be tendered a qualifying offer before being exposed in the draft.
So there are the rules, now how does it affect the Penguins?
The Penguins currently have six players with no-movement clauses of some kind. I expect the Penguins to protect five of those players and trade the last. The Pens should likely trade Marc-Andre Fleury before the end of next season, more likely before the summer is even over. He is one of the NMC Penguins. The others, who I expect the Pens to hold on to and protect, are Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Phil Kessel and Patric Hornqvist. Think it would be safe to assume they'd protect them anyway.
So with those five down, the Penguins have room to protect three more forwards, two defensemen and a goalie.
Obviously, Matt Murray will be the protected goalie. They wouldn't trade MAF just to let Murray get snatched in this draft. As for the defensemen, I am willing to bet the farm that the Pens protect Olli Maatta and Brian Dumoulin. Those two are both under 25-years-old as of this writing, and both are top four defenseman. Trevor Daley will be a UFA that summer, and I doubt the Penguins will protect him at 34-35 years old over the likes of Dumoulin.
It will be the forward corps that will be more interesting to see what the Pens do. We have Kessel, Crosby, Malkin and Hornqvist already protected, leaving three protection spots for roughly 10 guys. It will be interesting because two big name guys, Nick Bonino and Chris Kunitz, will both be UFAs next summer. I don't expect the Penguins to bring Kunitz back, but they could definitely re-sign Bones to a longer-term deal. If they did, then he would need to be protected in the expansion draft. Oskar Sundqvist and Conor Sheary will both be RFAs next summer, so it will be interested to see how the Penguins deal with them, particularly Sheary.
In actuality, I fully expect the Penguins to protect Carl Hagelin and Bryan Rust. Both are big pieces to this team, especially with the speed both bring, and I'd be shocked to see either go unprotected. The final spot will come down to I think Bonino, Sheary, or perhaps another player that will be acquired over the next year.
So my protected players are:
- Forwards: Malkin, Crosby, Kessel, Hornqvist, Hagelin, Rust, unknown (likely Bonino, Sheary)
- Defenseman: Letang, Maatta, Dumoulin
- Goalie: Murray
Now, what about those the Penguins can lose?
I think the Penguins are most likely to lose a bottom pair, or bottom six skater. Ian Cole would be a prime choice, as he is a solid defenseman who can kill penalties and adds a little offense when he plays that way. I think he would be a safe bet for the player the Penguins lose. I could also see them losing a veteran like Eric Fehr, who could play any position, on any line and kill penalties. He is so multi-faceted, even in his mid-30s would be a solid choice. They could also lose someone like Sheary, Wilson or Kuhnhackl too, depending on what GMJR does over the next few weeks.
It should be interesting, but this would be my preliminary keeps and losses for the Penguins in next summer's expansion draft.
On Next Year's Lines & Pairs...
Tough question to answer Bryce, mostly because there are a bunch of variables in the current equation. Will Malkin be ready for the season, despite reports he will be fine? How will the Penguins replace, likely, both Ben Lovejoy and Justin Schultz? If/when MAF is traded, who will serve as backup? Questions galore to be sure.
But for the hell of it Bryce, lets take a look at the lines and pairs...
1. Kunitz/Sheary - Crosby - Hornqvist
I don't expect Sid and Horny to be split up. The two play well together and both play with such tenacity that to split them up I think would be a bad choice. The question remains who will be on Sid's left. Is Kunitz going to reclaim that spot for the regular season? Can Conor Sheary be a top line wing with Sid full time? Is this a hole that gets filled this summer via trade, free agency? I don't know. I have no issue with Sheary playing there full time, but I think he could be the rotation player with Scott Wilson as well. Hell, Evgeni Malkin could end up playing on Sid's wing for all we know. Time will tell.
2. HBK, HBK, HBK!!!
The Pens would be silly to break up the best line in hockey. I know some in the media are saying that you may have to do it to satisfy egos, but this is the Penguins best line and to break it up would be silly. Keep the champs together. HBK! HBK! HBK!
3. Kunitz - Malkin - Rust
I really liked what this line did together over the last 10 playoff games. Even more so, I really think they can be something special in the regular season with everyone healthy and recharged. I'd run this line out there and see what happens. If it doesn't work, you can mix things up.
4. Kuhnhackl/Wilson/Sundqvist/Porter - Fehr
I think Eric Fehr is the only set in stone player on this line. He will either play center or right wing. The rest remains a mystery. Tom Kuhnhackl will likely get the bulk of the playing time on the left wing, as he did play well in the playoffs and down the stretch. Plus, he can kill penalties and has a little more scoring touch than Sundqvist and Porter. Scott Wilson will be healthy and will compete for playing time. He has the best hands of the Wilkes boys, so I'd like to see him play a bit more and see what we really have in him. Kevin Porter will factor in because he is "Craig Adams 2.0" and Sullivan seems to have a soft spot for him. I'd prefer he not play unless injury dictates it. Finally, I think Oskar Sundqvist is ready to play a full-time NHL role. He is very skilled defensively, on the PK and in the faceoff circle. He does need to become more dynamic offensively. The Pens aren't asking him to score 40 points, but he needs to be able to produce at least 15-20 on that line in a healthy chunk of NHL games.
1. Dumoulin - Letang
These two played well in the Stanley Cup Finals and I wouldn't break them up. My main reason for doing that is I really would rather see Olli Maatta play with a Trevor Daley and be a little more dynamic offensively than he would be playing with Letang. Dumoulin is more of a "stay at home" defenseman, which plays well with Letang. Keep them together.
2. Maatta - Daley
I really like these two together. Trevor Daley is such a smooth skater that he will certainly help Maatta if he gets caught and I think Maatta would be much more willing to play a two-way game if he's with someone like Daley over Letang. I like the idea of these two together, but any of the top four can easily be interchanged.
3. Cole - Uhhhh.... Hmmmm.....
Ian Cole will definitely be on the bottom pair going into next season. I have no idea who he will play with though. Ben Lovejoy is definitely gone, as he will get big money on the open market. Justin Schultz may return, but he'd have to take quite a pay cut to do so. Derrick Pouliot doesn't seem to be in the Pens plan, and they really need a right handed defenseman to play that spot, so they'll definitely add someone new to the mix here.
Matt Murray will be the starting goalie for sure, unless Marc-Andre Fleury somehow returns. If that is the case, expect them to split time, maybe 50-50, or at the very least 60-40. If Flower is traded, I would expect the Penguins to sign a veteran back up that can play about 30 games a year. Reports indicate they are really high on Brian Elliot from St. Louis, which I have no issue with if the price is right. Otherwise, expect them to move on from Jeff Zatkoff as well.
On the 2015-16 Season...
GUMPTION!!! I am so sorry, I sat here going back and forth on what I wanted to use for this and I just kept coming back to GUMPTION!!! If it is good enough for Ron Swanson, it's damn good enough for the rest of us!
This team showed a ton of heart and never say die this year. That's GUMPTION. It was something special to behold and I couldn't be more proud of this team. So sorry, fellas, but I couldn't use any other word.
On A Day with Lord Stanley...
Great question Jeff, and certainly a fun one to ponder on. There are so many things I'd love to do with the Stanley Cup, that honestly, one day would not be enough to do them all. If I had just 24 hours as you ask, I think I would do the following:
I grew up in the Pocono Mountains, along the shores of Lake Wallenpaupack. That is my home, and I would certainly want to bring the Stanley Cup there for the locals to enjoy.
I think my day with the Cup would start with a round of golf at my favorite course back home. I'd want my dad and I to go play a round of golf at Shawnee Inn and Resorts as we've done so many times in the past, but this time, with the Cup. Shawnee is an absolutely beautiful golf course, settled on the banks of the Delaware River and designed by one of the most renowned golf architects in history, A.W. Tillinghast. It would provide for some beautiful pictures and a great round of golf with my Dad, which I always enjoy.
After that, I'd take the Cup to my high school for a couple hours. I would like to make it a charity event, maybe charge everyone $5 to come in, see and get pictures with the Cup, and donate the money to local youth hockey or something like that. A lot of guys do that on their day with the Cup and I think it would be awesome to do so also.
Finally, I'd have a huge part with all my friends and family along the shores of the lake where I spent almost all my summers. We could swim, have a bon fire, cook out, enjoy each other's company and praise Lord Stanley in the most fun way possible.
So Jeff, I think that is how I'd spend my day with the Cup.