We have looked at a lot of different things this offseason about the the Pens: Acquisitions, the Draft, Injuries, Projections, etc. Today, it all culminates into this one post. What you are currently reading will be the most comprehensive examination of the Pittsburgh Penguins by me going into this new season. I will examine everything, from transactions, lines, d-pairs, powerplay, PK, captains, injuries, concerns, predictions, everything! It will all be right here. I warn you know, there is a lot to read, but I think you will enjoy it. So lets get this going, my official look at the 2014-15 Pittsburgh Penguins.
The off Season (Summer 2014)
Rutherford wasted no time making changes to the organization. He fired Bylsma during his introductory press conference. He also let go of most of Bylsma's staff; Jacques Martin remains in the organization. He named Jason Botterill the associate GM, a move I feel was made simply to see if Botterill is a "Shero Man" or a "Morehouse Man." Rutherford also named Tom Fitzgerald and Billy Guerin assistant general managers and salary cap specialist Jason Karmanos vice president. I agreed with all those moves. Bylsma needed to go and the appointments of Fitzgerald, Guerin and Karmanos will benefit the team greatly.
Next, was the search for the head coach. We were teased with the idea of Mike Babcock. We were pulling for Ulf Samuelsson and almost got Willie Desjardins. Ultimately, we got Mike Johnston from the WHL's Portland Winterhawks; another head scratching move but one I have come to like. He wasted no time in naming former Penguin and former NHL head coach Rick Tocchet to his coaching staff along with Gary Agnew. Both moves are set to make the team tougher, and more possession oriented.
This takes us to the draft in Philadelphia, where the beginnings of roster moves was officially made. Fan favorite James Neal was traded to Nashville for Patric Hornqvist and Nick Spaling. Later that night with the 22nd pick, the Pens selected Finnish prospect Kasperi Kapanen. Though most remember the night for the Neal trade, I think in time it will be looked at as a night that made a positive impact on this team. The Pens finished the draft by selecting several more forwards to replenish their organizational depth.
July 1st saw a lot of old faces move to new places. Long-time defenseman Brooks Orpik was allowed to walk, as was Matt Niskanen. Both found themselves in Washington while 2nd line winger Jussi Jokinen moved on to Florida. The Penguins did not go quietly, signing defenseman Christian Ehrhoff to replace Niskanen and bringing in the likes of Steve Downie, Thomas Greiss, Blake Comeau and Marcel Goc.
The Pens then focused on re-signing restricted free agents Brandon Sutter, Nick Spaling and Simon Despres. All three were re-signed. Followed by a PTO offered to former Penguin Daniel Carcillo to return to the organization with a chance to make the team in training camp.
Who is In and Who is out?
Those are a lot of holes to fill, but Jim Rutherford did a pretty good job. He received Patric Hornqvist and Nick Spaling for James Neal. He signed a trio of Germans in Marcel Goc, Christian Ehrhoff and Thomas Greiss. He added Steve Downie, Blake Comeau and Dan Carcillo for next to nothing. Finally, he re-signed restricted free agents Brandon Sutter and Simon Despres along with other prospects Nick Drazenovich, Jayson Megna and Philip Samuelsson.
The Sutter re-signing was big. I think we saw "the real" Sutter during the playoffs last year. He will benefit from a coaching change and more importantly, consistent linemates. One such linemate will be Nick Spaling, a solid two-way forward acquired with Hornqvist in the Neal deal. The two of them should see a lot of each other at even strength and on the PK.
The most impressive thing about the Pens summer were the short term, team friendly deals. Jim Rutherford signed guys to low-risk contracts with the hope that they will rebound after down years. Christian Ehrhoff is the first of them, and many feel he will be re-signed next offseason with Martin expected to walk. Downie, Comeau and Goc are all in similar boats, less than stellar years last year with a chance of redemption. All solid moves by the team.
It was hard to watch a guy like Brooks Orpik walk. A guy who'd been with the organization through the good, the bad and the ugly is always tough to see leave. More importantly, the loss of his leadership will be missed. Niskanen, Neal and Jokinen were all low-risk moves that paid dividends over the last few years. They will be missed by the fan base, but quickly forgotten once the new guys settle in.
Training Camp Rosters
Defensemen (17): Alex Boak, Robert Bortuzzo, Taylor Chorney, Nick D'Agostino, Simon Despres, Brian Dumoulin, Christian Ehrhoff, Scott Harrington, Kris Letang, Olli Maatta, Paul Martin, Reid McNeill, Derrick Pouliot, Harrison Ruopp, Philip Samuelsson, Clark Seymour and Rob Scuderi.
Forwards (34): Craig Adams, Josh Archibald, Beau Bennett, Dan Carcillo, Blake Comeau, Sidney Crosby, Jean-Sebastien Dea, Steve Downie, Nick Drazenovic, Pascal Dupuis, Andrew Ebbett, Bobby Farnham, Marcel Goc, Patric Hornqvist, Kasperi Kapanen, Tom Kostopoulos, Tom Kuhnhackl, Chris Kunitz, Christophe Lalancette, Pierre-Luc Leourneau-Lebloned, Geno Malkin, Matia Marcantuoni, Patrick McGrath, Jayson Megna, Adam Payerl, Bryan Rust, Conor Sheary, Zach Sill, Nick Spaling, Oskar Sundqvist, Brandon Sutter, Dominik Uher, Scott Wilson and Anton Zlobin.
Goalies (6): Marc-Andre Fleury, Tomas Greiss, Jeff Zatkoff, Eric Hartzell, Tristan Jarry and Matt Murray.
Line Pairings for the season
- Chris Kunitz - Sidney Crosby - Pascal Dupuis
- Beau Bennett - Evgeni Malkin - Patric Hornqvist
- Nick Spaling - Brandon Sutter - Steve Downie
- Blake Comeau - Marcel Goc - Craig Adams
If you read any publications, these are the lines you will most likely see. They are the smart choice but I don't necessarily agree with them (more on that in a second). The Crosby line is the only hold over from last year. Malkin will be flanked by new line mates and for Beau Bennett, it's his opportunity to prove whether he is the top six talent the organization thinks he is. It is an interesting year for Brandon Sutter. He will have new line mates again this year, and hopefully there won't be much shuffling on his line. He never had a consistent line last year which definitely impacted his game for the worse. The fourth line is what you'd expect.
Now, these are the lines I would like to see coming out of training camp (they differ from projections greatly):
- Chris Kunitz - Sidney Crosby - Beau Bennett
- Kasperi Kapanen - Evgeni Malkin - Patric Hornqvist
- Nick Spaling - Brandon Sutter - Pascal Dupuis
- Blake Comeau - Marcel Goc - Steve Downie
I think Kasperi Kapanen is the perfect fit for the Malkin-Hornqvist line. He is a play-making, pass first sort of player which Geno would greatly benefit from. That would go well with Hornqvist's net front presence and would allow Geno to shoot the puck more, something he desperately needs to do more of if the Pens are going to succeed. Also, reports are that Kapanen is very mature for his years and that he has a confidence that he belongs. That is something I like to see.
You will notice that I also have Bennett on the first line over Dupuis. The biggest reason for that is my worries about Dupuis' minutes and health (more on that later). I think Bennett needs to be in the top six and Dupuis needs less minutes. Its a compromise that should work for the Pens.
Finally, you'll notice I have Craig Adams out of the lineup. I really like Craig Adams, but his days are numbered. He was really only useful as a penalty killer last year and saw little ice time if the Pens weren't on the PK. Maybe a new regime changes that, but I'd prefer Kapanen in over Adams.
Defensive Pairs for the New Season
- Kris Letang - Christian Ehrhoff
- Paul Martin - Olli Maatta
- Rob Scuder - Robert Bortuzzo - Simon Despres
Here are my defensive pairs I would like to see this season:
- Kris Letang - Paul Martin
- Olli Maatta - Christian Ehrhoff
- Rob Scuderi - Robert Bortuzzo
As you can see, I disagree with most of the projections. The Martin-Letang pairing was the best the Pens had in the playoffs and I don't think they should move away from that. Next, I believe Christian Ehrhoff is very similar in his play to Matt Niskanen. Olli Maatta played best last season when he was paired with Matt Niskanen. Seems a no brainer to me, put Ehrhoff with Maatta. Now, there are still many calling for Scuderi's head and a one-way trip out of town. I personally think he will have a renaissance year and return to be "the Piece." I also like him with Robert Bortuzzo over anyone else. They were good in the playoffs and the two are great penalty killers. Bortuzzo is better equipped for the PK role than Simon Despres and therefore should get more of the minutes.
Special Teams
Now, allow me to take a look at the powerplay. The Pens PP under the Bylsma regime ranked number one in the NHL, succeeding 23.4% of the time. The Pens loss Matt Niskanen and James Neal from the powerplays, both of which were instrumental to the success of the PP last season. That being said, the Johnston system and the return of the big guns like Sid, Geno, Letang and Kunitz should keep this PP as one of the best in the league. Here are my projected powerplay units:
- Kris Letang and Christian Ehrhoff on points, with Chris Kunitz in front of the net and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin working the half-walls.
- Paul Martin and Olli Maatta on the points, with Patric Hornqvist in front of the net and Brandon Sutter and Beau Bennett working the half-walls.
I think it is important that the Pens return to the two-defensemen on the points system from the beginning. We saw what happened when the Pens put Geno on the point and it led to too many shorthanded opportunities. Ehrhoff will be the quarterback of the PP the Pens have missed since Sergei Gonchar left, while Patric Hornqvist will add a better net front presence for the second unit.
As for the penalty kill, the Pens will still have most of the group that killed 85% penalties last season, good enough for fifth in the NHL. Here are the PK units I expect to see:
- Brandon Sutter and Pascal Dupuis with Rob Scuderi and Robert Bortuzzo.
- Craig Adams, Nick Spaling or Marcel Goc with Kris Letang and Paul Martin.
Dupuis and Sutter are great penalty killing forwards, I fully expect them to continue that this year. If Craig Adams is playing, then he will of course be on this unit, otherwise you will see Nick Spaling and Marcel Goc together. If Adams is in, then I'd expect Goc and Spaling to split time with him. No surprises with the defensemen. The teams top pair of Letang and Martin will be part of the unit as will the third pair of Rob Scuderi and Robert Bortuzzo.
Prospects to Watch This Season
- Kasperi Kapanen (F): could play for the Pens this season, but likely will return to Finland. He is a quality player the Pens stole at the 22nd pick. If he doesn't break the Pens lineup this year, he will next year.
- Derrick Pouliot (D): If he wasn't coming of offseason shoulder surgery, Pouliot may well be this year's Olli Maatta. Drafted ahead of Olli in 2012, the pride of the Pens prospects corps is not far from playing in the big show. I think he will spend the year at Wilkes-Barre after recovery, but will make his debut this year at some point.
- Tristan Jarry (G): There are a lot of questions about the future of Marc-Andre Fleury with this organization after this year. I personally think it would be dumb to let Fleury walk next summer, but Jim Rutherford will let it happen if he wants. If that is the case I think that 2013 2nd rounder Tristan Jarry may be the Flower's replacement. He will need to get time this year at the AHL level, but he has performed pretty well rookie camps and has been lights out in Juniors. If not next year, Jarry will be the goalie the Pens turn to by 2017.
- Brian Dumoulin (D): Will have a chance to make the club this training camp but since he can be returned to WBS without passing waivers, I expect he will spend another season in Wilkes-Barre. Acquired in the Jordan Staal trade, Dumoulin has been highly underrated with his time in the organization. I think he will be part of this team come next season when Martin will likely walk and possible Ehrhoff and Bortuzzo with him.
- Oskar Sundqvist (F): Drafted in 2011 and signed to his rookie contract this spring, the Swedish forward is progressing and impressing the Pens organization with his play this summer. He will likely play at Wilkes-Barre this year, but he could be joining the Pens come 2015-16.
Some of my Concerns for this season
1. Pascal Dupuis' Health and Minutes: I am concerned about Pascal Dupuis most of all. He is 35 years old and coming of ACL/MCL surgery. His best asset was always his speed. Will that speed still be there after this injury? If not, can he keep up with Crosby and Kunitz? I think the simple answer is only time will tell, but I think you can put those worries to rest an easier way: play him on the 3rd line. Playing him with Sutter and Spaling will cut down his minutes per night, which will be easier on his body as he regains his stamina and recovers from the knee issue. Dupuis' health is paramount. He makes a huge impact on the success of this team.
2. The Loss of Leadership: The Pens lost two of their best leaders this off-season when Rutherford let Orpik and Niskanen walk. Crosby is the captain, but more of a lead by example sort of leader. Geno wears the "A" because he's Malkin. Kunitz will likely wear the "A" now that Orpik is gone. But I don't necessarily care about the letters on the jersey. I am just concerned about losing Orpik and Niskanen's leadership in the room. Both of those guys were vocal leaders in the locker room, something the Pens definitely need. Can Rob Scuderi take up that mantle? I think he can and should. He may not have had a great year last season, but he is an important veteran voice in a locker room that needs a voice now more than ever. More importantly, I think Kris Letang needs to take up that mantle. He has the big contract, he is who the team bought into. He needs to be the leader of the defense now that Orpik is gone, period.
3. The "Toughness" Issue: The Pens were soft last year. No doubts about it. They went out and immediately changed that with the hiring of Rick Tocchet and the signings of Steve Downie and Dan Carcillo. If Carcillo makes the roster, that gives the Pens two brawlers that will not allow liberties to be taken against the likes of Crosby, Malkin and Letang; something that hurt the Penguins in the playoffs dearly. I believe that the additions of Downie, Carcillo and Tocchet behind the bench will change the attitude of that locker room and make guys a little "grittier" than they've been in the past. My other concern is can those guys not take stupid penalties in their roles as enforcers? Sure they can protect, but if they take stupid penalties then they are not helping that much.
4. Beau Bennett and Simon Despres' Usage. There is no question that the Bylsma regime screwed up the likes of Bennett and Despres. The question now is can the Johnston regime right the ship and make these guys into the first round studs they were believed to be. With Beau, the biggest question is health. If he can stay on the ice, I think you will see him succeed if Johnston does indeed give him the time and he gets that time with Crosby or Malkin. Despres will be interesting. As Mark Madden has said this week, the Pens need Despres to be a cheap version of Paul Martin. That is a fair assessment. If Despres can live up to expectations, then the Pens can afford to move Martin during the season for a top six winger to help Sid and Geno.
5. The New Regime: It will be interesting to see what Mike Johnston and staff do with this team. The Bylsma system worked in the regular season but never did in the playoffs. I have concerns to what Johnston wants to do and whether he has the ability to adapt in-game when things aren't going right. To be honest, I'd rather see them lose some regular season games trying different schemes so they can adjust in the playoffs than them run over everyone and flame out in April. Others have questions about whether the stars (Crosby, Malkin, Letang) will take Johnston seriously. I don't see that being a problem and as Stan Savran said today, where do those get off not taking him seriously after their performances in the playoffs recently? Shouldn't be a problem of taking seriously, more so can they make the in-game adjustments Bylsma never could.
My Three players to watch entering the season
Division and Conference Expectations
I expect the Pens to run away with the Metropolitan Division. Besides the Blue Jackets and Capitals, the rest of the division regressed a bit. The Pens will face not win easily, the games will be scrappy and hard fought, but they will ultimately win the division by a solid margin.
I'm not as optimistic when it comes to winning the East. The Bruins lost Jarome Iginla but they did not regress and the Tampa Bay Lightning gave Steven Stamkos a lot of new toys to play with this year. I think the East will go through those two team. If the Pens hope to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals, they will most likely have to take down one or the other, and I think they'll struggle to do it.
My prediction is the Pens win the Metropolitan, but lose in the Eastern Conference Finals to either the Bruins or the Lightning. (Don't get me wrong, I really hope I am wrong about that last part there, but I am realistic).
Fantasy Thoughts
- Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are no brainers. If you can take either one, do it. They will always produce when healthy.
- Kris Letang will return to form and be a great mid-round pickup. He has really fallen down a lot of lists because of the injury plagued year he had last season. But the new coaching change, system and clean bill of health will all work in his favor. Don't hesitate, he will produce.
- Chris Kunitz will be taken higher than he should be. Kunitz had a great year with Sid last year. He will be higher on most draft boards than maybe he should be. If he is with either Sid or Geno he will produce, but is he a pick in the first four rounds, no.
- Christian Ehrhoff and Patric Hornqvist are sleepers who will have good years. Hornqvist will greatly benefit from playing with Malkin and he should put up 60 points. Ehrhoff will look to rebound after several down years in Buffalo. Expect him to replicate Matt Niskanen's great numbers last year, and be a solid mid-to-late round pick up.
- Avoid Marc-Andre Fleury. Good goalie in real life, but fantasy-wise not so much. He really only helps in the wins category, and you shouldn't jump on him if you can take the likes of Rask, Lundqvist, Quick, Miller, Crawford or Rinne first.
- For deeper leagues, Paul Martin, Brandon Sutter and Pascal Dupuis are worthy pick ups. Because they all get PK time as well, they will be useful in leagues with deeper rosters. I think all three will have good years, but don't jump early on them. In fact, Sutter will probably go undrafted in almost every league. Martin eats a lot of minutes. He probably won't put up Letang numbers, but his average icetime and blocked shots make him valuable in some leagues.